It's no secret that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2024 will be decided largely by pace. Though they weren't the finest of their crop, horses like Rich Strike and Giacomo managed to win the year's greatest race thanks to a fast first six furlongs. However, War Emblem exploited a poor first half-mile in his unexpected victory, winning the race for the roses by wire to wire back in 2002.
Although there have been several racers this year who seem to desire to be on or near the front end, a fast pace is not certain. The last two Derby runnings featured exceptionally fast paces. It's very obvious that Fierceness gains the most if they proceed cautiously at first.
When things went his way, the 2-year-old male champion from 2023 was almost unbeatable, but he faltered when faced with hardship. Although there are numerous methods for the Todd Pletcher protégé to reach the finish line first, sitting down a lesser opponent who is setting a slow pace or clearing the way himself under comparable fractions is by far the simplest way to win.
Although runners who start the Derby from the rear clearly prefer a fast, competitive pace, it is still possible to start the race from several lengths out at a moderate early speed. However, without a quick pace to chase, Sierra Leone has been able to perform at or near his best. The majority of the late runners have thus far shown themselves to be race-shape dependent.
The son of Gun Runner was able to pass Track Phantom two races ago in the Grade 2 Risen Star, even though the Quality Road colt was left alone to control a 49.3-second first half-mile. Although trainer Chad Brown would prefer a faster tempo, his Sierra Leone team is still competitive even at a slower speed.
Some runners will have their chances lessened if the pace is slow to moderate, but Honor Marie is the colt who is compromised most by a glacial first six panels.
The colt named Honor Code lacks early zip and has demonstrated that he performs best when given a fast pace to pursue. He did it last month when he finished second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and in November when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). As the speeds start to slow down one by one, veteran Ben Curtis is probably going to try to gain as much room as he can early on and close the gap with a strong run in the end.
One of the hardest races of the year to handicap is the Derby. Comprehending the pacing scenario is crucial for removing runners, which should ultimately result in a high score.