Experts in speed figures talk about putting in a lot of work in the final preparation for the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Fierceness's performance in the Florida Derby can be summed up in one word (G1). "You can use my quote, 'He's fast,'' stated Jerry Brown, the president and founder of Thoro-Graph.
The homebred from Repole Stable won the race that has produced the most Kentucky Derby (G1) winners (25), crossing the finish line 13 1/2 lengths ahead in a lightning-fast 1:48.22 mile and an eighth.
That is undoubtedly quick. A remarkably swift and commanding performance by a 3-year-old in their last preparation for the Triple Crown's first leg.
Was it, perhaps, moving too quickly?
Determining whether a horse will repeat, improve upon, bounce, or regress from its prior race is a crucial component of handicapping, despite the opinion held by some that horses are machines capable of producing identical results at every start.
One of the biggest mysteries of handicapping the May 4 Run for the Roses is that horses frequently retreat from their best efforts. In the Florida Derby, Fierceness put out a tremendous effort. How will she respond? Was he too soon into a race? Is he going to bounce? Or does he have the brilliance of a generation that might make him the 14th Triple Crown victor?
"The question is can he sustain it?" Brown mentioned the Kentucky Derby's 5-2 morning-line favourite.
Renowned speed figure authorities Brown and Len Friedman, one of the founders of Ragozin Thoroughbred Data (also known as The Sheets), were asked to frame the question of how Fierceness will run in the Kentucky Derby after posting such a huge effort for trainer Todd Pletcher five weeks ago, even though the answer won't be known until approximately 7 p.m. on May 4.
"Big Brown ran a huge race and won the Derby," Brown stated. "But a lot don't. Bellamy Road didn't."
Big Brown, who was favoured by 2-1, won the 2008 Florida Derby with a Thoro-Graph figure of negative 3 1/2. Later, as the 2-1 favourite, he won the Kentucky Derby by 4 3/4 lengths with a faster negative 4 3/4. Thoro-Graph and Ragozin use a scale where lower numbers are better.
While Bellamy Road was the 5-2 betting favourite and went on to win the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) by 17 1/2 lengths in 2005, she came in ninth in the Kentucky Derby.
Examining Fierceness in the Florida Derby, Thoro-Graph gave him a negative 3 1/4, whereas Ragozin gave him a 4 3/4. Fierceness received the fastest US number in a final Kentucky Derby prep on Thoro-Graph since Big Brown.
However, it's also important to consider that he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion in his third and final race as a two-year-old, winning by 6 1/4 lengths.
He received a negative 1 1/2 on Thoro-Graph and a 4 3/4 in the Juvenile from Ragozin.
"It is an enormous figure for an early-season 3-year-old," Brown noted of the Florida Derby. "But what has gotten lost is that his last figure at 2 was also an enormous number."
Given that Fierceness' juvenile number occurred earlier in the son of City of Light's career, Friedman expressed greater admiration for it and stated: "This is a fast final prep number but not dramatically fast. It is just one of the fastest ones. Looking at the post-steroids and post-Lasix era, this is one of the best last-race numbers in recent years. But the most impressive one was the number he ran in the Breeders' Cup. That was as fast as this one but he did it as a 2-year-old and that makes it more impressive."
Ragozin's data indicate that Fierceness' effort was comparable to Game Winner's 4 1/2 in his last 2019 preparation. Nine horses have entered the Kentucky Derby off Ragozin numbers ranging from 6 1/2 to 4 1/2 during the past eight years.
With numbers of 4 3/4 - 10 - 4 3/4 - 21 1/4 - 7 1/4 (most recent numbers first) in his five career starts, some handicappers think Fierceness has a tendency to run strong races followed by weak ones. However, Friedman believes Fierceness is entering the Kentucky Derby on a great pattern that bodes well for a big effort.
"It's a strong pattern. I see it as a strong condition move, pairing up the 2-year-old top in his second start as a 3-year-old. I think it's a positive move," he noted. "I think some Sheets players might see him as a favourite and play him to bounce but all these reads in terms of patterns are percentage reads. I'd say he's 25% to repeat, 25% to go forward, and 50% to go backwards."
Brown and Friedman both believe Fierceness will win at odds of 5-2 or 2-1, but Friedman won't be convinced if the price goes down.
"I'm certainly not betting against Fierceness," Friedman remarked. "Even if he was even money."