Jerry Brown, the creator of the widely recognized ThoroGraph sheets, has weighed in on this year's King’s Plate, suggesting that it could be a lucrative betting race. ThoroGraph sheets, known for assigning performance figures to horses based on various factors such as track speed, final time, and ground loss, are a vital tool for serious handicappers. The lower the ThoroGraph number, the better the horse's performance in a given race.
As Brown evaluates this year’s King’s Plate field, which is expected to consist of 12-13 horses, he notes that the overall quality is somewhat low. However, he identifies a few horses that stand out as potential winners.
My Boy Prince, the race favourite, seeks to become just the second Champion 2-year-old colt to win the Plate since the Sovereign Awards began in 1975. Trained by Mark Casse and owned by Gary Barber, this grey colt by Cairo Prince won the Plate Trial despite a slow start. My Boy Prince has shown the ability to run in the 9 range on the ThoroGraph sheets, though Brown considers his pattern to be weak, making him suspect over the race’s 1 1/4 mile distance.
Brown also highlights three other horses in the field with numbers comparable to My Boy Prince, suggesting they could be potential upset candidates:
1. Essex Street: Another member of Casse’s powerful trio, Essex Street won the Grade 3 Marine Stakes at 1 1/16 miles and is likely to be a pace runner or stalker. The son of Honor Code posted a 9 on the ThoroGraph sheets in the Marine, matching his debut winning number.
2. Pierre: Trained by Kevin Attard, Pierre is a son of Tapiture who has recorded a pair of 9s coming into the Plate. With Attard potentially fielding four horses in the race, Pierre stands out as one to watch.
3. Rafaroo: A lightly raced horse who has only competed twice, Rafaroo showed significant improvement when finishing second to My Boy Prince in the Plate Trial, moving from a 12 to a 9 on the ThoroGraph sheets. Notably, Awesome Again, the last Canadian-bred to win the Plate in just his third career race, did so in 1997.
Additionally, Brown mentions a few other horses with potential to impact the race if they show improvement:
- Midnight Mascot: Another Casse trainee who has run a 10 on the ThoroGraph sheets.
- Caitlynheregrtness: The only filly in the race, who has also run a 10.
- Jokestar and Friendly Ghost: Both horses have posted 12s but could be in contention with a forward move.
Overall, Brown’s analysis suggests that while My Boy Prince is the favourite, the race’s relatively open field could offer value for bettors looking to back potential upsetters with strong figures and improving patterns.