Though the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes on Saturday at Kentucky Downs may not feature any previous graded-stakes winners among its 16 entrants, it promises to be a fiercely competitive race. The morning-line favourite is listed at 4-1, with no horse longer than 20-1 on Nick Tammaro's odds line.
As they say, a Grade 1 is still a Grade 1, and horseplayers are eager to tackle the challenge. One key factor to consider is Kentucky Downs' track conditions. During the first week of the meet, speed proved advantageous, with 18 of 33 winners leading from the front, particularly in sprints. Though it's been a few days since the last race and course maintenance or weather could alter conditions, speed is likely to remain a strong factor.
This bodes well for Apollo Ten, whose early Brisnet Pace Ratings resemble those seen in dirt sprints. Apollo Ten, one of the few stakes winners in this field, earned his victory with a gate-to-wire performance at Monmouth Park. While his last race at Saratoga wasn't his best, the 6-1 morning line offers good value compared to his fair odds of 9-2. Kentucky Downs' morning lines have been particularly accurate, which adds confidence to this assessment.
Another intriguing contender is Evade, whose 3-year-old debut at Epsom earned an impressive 121 Brisnet Class Rating, the highest in the field. Despite a dip in form over his next two races, which were likely against stronger competition, Evade’s forward-running style and inside draw could make him a serious threat. Notably, Evade is the only runner with experience in a Grade or Group 1 race, adding another layer of unpredictability to the event.
With no clear standout, the Franklin-Simpson Stakes is shaping up to be a thrilling race for bettors and racing fans alike.