As we analyse the gross sales from the initial three books of the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, it appears that this year's auction is on track to break a recent pattern of declining totals during presidential election years.
While our industry's attention is fixed on the first two days of November—the Breeders' Cup World Championships—it's clear that political figures like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are eager to remind us of the upcoming election on the first Tuesday of November through their incessant robo-texts.
As we approach these pivotal dates, the Keeneland September Sale has reported a 4.8% increase in gross sales compared to the same sessions in 2023. This trend could make 2024 the first year in five presidential election cycles, dating back to 2004, to witness an increase in total gross sales. It’s a positive sign that allows us to breathe a little easier.
However, let's be clear: I’m not entirely convinced that these figures are directly tied to one another. In 2016, I analyzed sales data and found that the average price actually rose in four of the five preceding election cycles, which I speculated might indicate a certain optimism during those years. Yet in 2016 itself, as well as in the pandemic-ridden year of 2020, both the average and gross sales fell, leading us to conclude that gross sales during election years tend to decrease. So much for optimism linked to presidential elections.
Nevertheless, it seems that any apprehensions regarding the ongoing trend of declining gross sales in election years can be put to rest for 2024. The industry will gladly welcome the uptick.
As for predictions on the election outcome? Only a spin doctor might extract any substantial numbers from this data. One might note that in two of the last three elections where the sales average increased, the Republican candidate emerged victorious. However, this reasoning is balanced by the statistical wisdom of Pete Rose, who humorously suggested that if a baseball writer pointed out he had only two hits out of 12 at-bats, he could confidently argue he had at least three hits out of 13.
Thus, consider this: A Democrat has won the presidency in two of the past four years when Keeneland's average improved. Conversely, a Republican has also taken the presidency in two of those years. The interpretation of these statistics may depend on one's political perspective.