There are several similarities between meteorology and public handicapping. Customers hope you're correct when they agree with you, and they hope you're wrong when they disagree.
The more time that is spent discussing what an "off" track means for the complexion of the Kentucky Oaks, the more likely it is that it will rain on Friday at Churchill Downs and that it will rain significantly.
Half of the field this year has already won on the off track. Our Pretty Woman, who was drawn in, won twice at Fair Grounds on the sloppy, sealed main track before coming in second behind morning-line favourite Tarifa in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, which was held on a track rated as fast.
According to Ed DeRosa, Ways and Means, his favourite in the event, has never been on an off track. However, her sire Practical Joke has a 16 per cent off track record with his progeny. Her dam, the stakes-winning Comic Strip mare G G's Dolly, won a stake on off going and has produced three winners on an off track, although her dam, the Warrior's Reward mare Strong Incentive, never raced on an off track.
Everland is another filly that has never been off course. This is because she has never worked in the dirt, too, but regardless of how good you think her chances are in the dirt, you have to think better of them on the off-road. With his departing runners, her sire Arrogate is 26-for-90 and has a Horse Racing Nation Impact score of +58.5 per cent. Put another way, even when they're winning a lot, they're still beating the odds.