What is the Frequency of the Champion Hurdle Favorite's Victories?

In seven out of the previous nine years, the favourite has consistently come out as the winner, showcasing an impressive pattern in the race's recent history.

Horse racing centers around the skill of predicting future outcomes, or at least attempting to do so. It necessitates a comprehensive understanding of statistics, a sharp ability to observe races, and a careful analysis of every small detail to determine success. However, the unpredictable nature of the sport occasionally brings surprises that even the most astute spectators cannot anticipate.

Among the most prestigious races on the calendar, few are held in higher regard than the Champion Hurdle. This Grade One spectacle is one of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival, perhaps second only to the Gold Cup. A substantial prize fund exceeding £250,000 awaits the winner, and it is expected to grow even larger this April. Speaking of this year's significant race, the current titleholder, Constitution Hill, is predicted to triumph once again, and bookmakers have designated him as a strong favourite with betting odds of -330.

The supporters of Constitution Hill are confident in their chances, particularly due to an impressive trend in the race over the past decade. This trend reveals that the favourite has emerged victorious in seven out of the last nine years. Last year, it was Constitution Hill who claimed the victory, and before him, the exceptional Honeysuckle won consecutive races in 2021 and 2022. To find the last underdog to win the race, one must go back to 2019, when that honour was bestowed upon…

Jezki

During the prestigious Champion Hurdle in 2014, one horse, The New One, stood out among the competition. With odds of 5/2, he entered the race as the clear favourite, generating high hopes among racing enthusiasts.

It was an exceptional event as The New One managed to overshadow the reigning champion Hurricane Fly, a respected figure in the sport who had previously won this prestigious race twice. Many bookmakers had assumed that Hurricane Fly's best days were behind him and ran various promotions to encourage bettors to support the horse, and many took the bait.

Against expectations, Jezki, a relatively inexperienced horse with slightly lower odds, defied predictions and demonstrated remarkable strength during the race. With determination, Jezki maintained a commanding lead right from the start, surpassing the more renowned competitors.

The unexpected victory left spectators astonished, considering the presence of well-established contenders. Neither Jezki nor jockey Barry Geraghty allowed themselves to be distracted by the formidable competition, ultimately securing the win by a narrow margin. This resulted in one of the most exhilarating finishes ever witnessed in horse racing.

Buveur d’Air

Two years before his unsuccessful attempt at winning three consecutive races, Buveur d'Air was considered the underdog. However, this time, he didn't make any mistakes. Despite being ranked third in the betting, the talented horse surpassed rivals Yanworth and My Tent Or Yours, despite having relatively long odds of 5/1. Yanworth, who was favoured with odds of 2/1, failed to meet expectations and ended up in seventh place, losing to stablemate Sceau Royal.

That left Buveur d'Air and My Tent or Yours, both trained by Nicky Henderson, to compete for the victory, with the duo comfortably ahead of third-place finisher Petit Mouchoir. Buveur d'Air emerged as the winner, pulling away from the runner-up in the final stretch and securing a four-length victory.

However, in 2018, Buveur d'Air silenced any doubts by winning another race, this time as the strong favourite. Nevertheless, his performance as the odds-on favourite was less dominant, winning by a narrow margin and eventually losing his title in 2019.

Espoir d'Allen

In 2019, all eyes were on Buveur d'Air, the defending champion. The horse racing community was captivated by the potential for a historic third consecutive win in the highly lucrative race. 

Buveur d'Air's previous back-to-back victories had established him as the clear favourite among bettors, although some believed he could be beaten, particularly because his margin of victory over runner-up Melon in 2018 was only a narrow one. However, fate took an unexpected turn when Buveur d'Air stumbled early in the race, leaving spectators shocked and the outcome uncertain. This surprising turn of events completely changed the dynamics of the race, presenting an opportunity for the relatively inexperienced contender Espoir d'Allen, who had odds of 16/1.

With jockey Mark Walsh guiding them, Espoir d'Allen seized the moment and surged ahead. They maintained their lead throughout the race, crossing the finish line an impressive 15 lengths ahead of their closest rivals.