Essential Derby Qualifiers: Three Prognoses

This weekend marks a significant milestone on the 2023-24 Road to the Kentucky Derby, featuring four pivotal qualifiers nationwide. Among these, the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park and the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita stand out, showcasing top three-year-old contenders.

Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

Historical trends suggest that short-priced horses making their three-year-old debut in the one 1/16-mile Holy Bull often face challenges, with notable juveniles like Hansen and Classic Empire experiencing upsets despite their prior accomplishments. #7 Fierceness, despite a setback in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct, has demonstrated significant prowess, with victories in his Saratoga debut and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), indicating a solid performance potential at Gulfstream.

Fierceness' performance metrics, including a peak Brisnet Speed rating of 112, suggest a competitive edge over his Holy Bull counterparts, who have yet to reach a rating of 98.

Contenders for the second place include #1 Hades, who has maintained an undefeated record at Gulfstream, and #3 Otello, a stakes winner with a strong showing in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, highlighting his ability to navigate through traffic and finish strongly.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

Bob Baffert's #6 Nysos enters the Robert B. Lewis Stakes undefeated in two starts, showcasing dominance and versatility in his races. With impressive Brisnet Speed ratings and a pedigree suggesting suitability for longer distances, Nysos stands as a formidable contender.

#5 Coach Prime, also trained by Baffert, comes off a maiden victory and a competitive showing in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Adjustments, including the removal of blinkers and the engagement of jockey Frankie Dettori, could signal an enhanced performance, positioning Coach Prime as a strong candidate for second place behind Nysos.

These selections are based on the horses' past performances and potential in their upcoming races.