Virtual Lecomte Stakes Analysis: Focus on Top Two Contenders

In the upcoming Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, eight horses will compete. My analysis suggests that two horses, Nash and Track Phantom, dominate the field. This is not a two-horse race. According to my calculations, these two have a 77% chance of winning.

This race is a stepping stone towards the Kentucky Derby 2024. While the field is broader, the focus is on Nash and Track Phantom. Their combined odds, if treated as a single entry, would be short, lower than 2-5.

On the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, 'All Others' and Fierceness appear to be the frontrunners.

The real question is whether there's value in betting on Nash or Track Phantom. Based on their morning line odds, Nash stands at 5-2 with fair odds of 9-5, while Track Phantom is at 9-5 with fair odds of 7-5. Both offer potential value, but Nash is likely to be the favorite.

In their last encounter, Nash was a 1-2 favorite against Track Phantom and others. Nash didn’t lead early but made a significant move to contend. I interpret this performance as a sign of Track Phantom's superior speed. Yet, some might see it as a drawback. The concern is Track Phantom's outside post. But, given the expected odds, Track Phantom seems the more strategic choice.

Given the short odds of either Nash or Track Phantom winning, other contenders are at longer odds. The scenarios seem to narrow down to three: no value bets. Nash is overbet, offering value on Track Phantom. Or vice versa. In essence, Nash and Track Phantom are the only viable betting options in this race, with no value bets at all.

For multi-race strategies, considering the Lecomte concludes an all-stakes Pick 5, my suggestion is to single out Track Phantom on the primary ticket. For tickets involving non-favorites or second choices, including both Nash and Track Phantom as the final picks in the Lecomte might be a prudent approach.